Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 3.174526 3.800938 4.500122 5.335687 6.304225 7.388625 8.691599
2025-04-27 2.233923 3.060740 4.092969 5.463407 7.220483 9.381684 12.222925
2025-05-04 1.689001 2.600678 3.852680 5.666296 8.188626 11.529276 16.235866
2025-05-11 1.274136 2.181079 3.537268 5.657096 8.817235 13.269697 19.909805
2025-05-18 0.946633 1.791423 3.159113 5.450833 9.086474 14.495607 22.970320
2025-05-25 0.701527 1.462607 2.791547 5.167664 9.158449 15.395160 25.605403
2025-06-01 0.555139 1.264751 2.591382 5.103977 9.539435 16.770743 29.060314
2025-06-08 0.443718 1.101401 2.413697 5.037179 9.886675 18.104704 32.551557
2025-06-15 0.393366 1.049961 2.433471 5.325416 10.875478 20.578303 38.102286
2025-06-22 0.328388 0.947219 2.328375 5.352649 11.385203 22.271943 42.478844
2025-06-29 0.273558 0.852232 2.218741 5.348506 11.826438 23.874167 46.817999
2025-07-06 0.227171 0.764375 2.105672 5.315313 12.199458 25.376190 51.089182
2025-07-13 0.212169 0.760052 2.190751 5.735739 13.555421 28.862881 59.304289
2025-07-20 0.185528 0.714214 2.166958 5.910383 14.429809 31.526477 66.240570
2025-07-27 0.165059 0.680721 2.167639 6.142127 15.453076 34.569962 74.131388
2025-08-03 0.138619 0.618007 2.076848 6.137449 15.956441 36.623218 80.280122
2025-08-10 0.110066 0.535927 1.912175 5.917693 15.944083 37.621845 84.437366
2025-08-17 0.084990 0.454936 1.728998 5.613930 15.691761 38.088172 87.554976
2025-08-24 0.070184 0.408397 1.639322 5.545667 15.990597 39.746437 93.211912
2025-08-31 0.057910 0.366685 1.554138 5.473904 16.269369 41.379960 98.929105
2025-09-07 0.053988 0.362853 1.597164 5.783881 17.550522 45.341647 109.822108
2025-09-14 0.046202 0.335471 1.549765 5.813169 18.105123 47.698469 117.422374
2025-09-21 0.039158 0.307994 1.494632 5.808719 18.569102 49.882123 124.789304